--- title: "Tips and tricks to master scenario planning" canonical: "https://support.55degrees.se/space/SP/3964864334/Tips%20and%20tricks%20to%20master%20scenario%20planning" format: markdown --- Scenario planning in Portfolio Forecaster helps you simulate “what-if” situations and see their impact on your delivery forecast. Whether facing team changes, deadline pressure, or shifting priorities, scenarios let you test changes safely *before* you commit. Here are our top tips (and a few expert tricks) for going from beginner to scenario-planning master. > Macro (toc) ## **Start with a real question** - Can we still meet the deadline if we lose 3 people next sprint? - What if we move this high-impact item to the top of the backlog? - How much scope do we need to drop to deliver on time? > ℹ️ **Tip**: Don’t try to model everything at once. One straightforward question = one practical scenario. ## **Use the 3 key levers (and know when to use them)** There are three main things you can adjust in a scenario: - **Workload (Work in Progress)** → How many things are you doing at once - **Priority (Order of Work)** → What gets attention first - **Capacity (Throughput)** → How fast the team finishes work What if we only focused on item TIS-3? *Update the Workload* What if TIS-3 became the #1 priority? *Move it to the top of the list* What if we lend 3 team members to a different team? *Decrease the capacity* > ℹ️ **Trick**: Try running the same scenario with different levers, such as reducing WIP *vs* increasing capacity, and compare results. ## **Always Compare to the Original Forecast** When running a scenario, you update key parameters to see different potential outcomes. By doing so, you may be affecting other work items. It’s important to check if there were any tradeoffs. - If we prioritise TIS-3, it means that TIS-111 might be delayed by 6 months. Does that align with our goals? Are we okay with this delay? - If we lend 3 team members to a different team, can we still match our deadline? > ℹ️ **Trick**: Always make sure that you are aware of the impacts of your scenarios ## **Don’t focus only on the dates; start a conversation** Scenario planning is not just a solo activity, it’s a tool for better team conversations. Use each scenario to prompt discussions like: - *Is this risk acceptable?* - *What are we willing to delay to meet this goal?* - *What does success actually look like for this delivery?* > ℹ️ **Trick**: Bring 2–3 scenarios to your next planning meeting. Use them to make trade-offs visible and facilitate decision-making. ## **Model the worst-case scenario, not just the best** It’s tempting to use scenario planning to prove that your plan will work. But the real value comes from seeing what could go wrong: - What happens if capacity drops unexpectedly? - What if something gets blocked for 30 days? - What if we try to do *everything* at once? > ℹ️ **Tip**: Run a “worst-case” scenario before committing, and build buffer accordingly. ## Revisit the scenarios as the situation changes Your plan will evolve, unexpected events might occur so your forecast will* most likely* be impacted Set a reminder to revisit your key scenarios when: - A team member joins or leaves - A milestone shifts - Priorities are redefined - You notice a big change in throughput > ℹ️ **Trick**: Keep reforcasting. This applies to scenarios but also your *actual* forecasts. Update your assumptions, be aware of what changed and change course if needed. ## Combine scenarios to explore options Try different combinations and see which one has the best results, the least negative impacts or which ones don’t work: - **Scenario A**: What if we reduce WIP? - **Scenario B**: What if we reduce WIP *and* get 10% more capacity? Comparing layered scenarios helps you: - See tipping points (what makes the forecast realistic vs. risky) - Build confidence in complex situations - Justify your recommendations with data > ℹ️ **Tip**: Use combined scenarios to support conversations with stakeholders, especially when negotiating scope or timelines. ## Scenarios work best for the far future It’s not just about what’s happening now, it’s about preparing for what could happen later. Your data should accurately reflect your current context. It is essential to use a scenario based on present circumstances rather than speculating about what may happen next week, as this approach may lead to confusion. - For instance, if Employee A is scheduled to be on sick leave next week and there is a recurring pattern of illness within the team, your historical data will already account for these variables. Therefore, artificially adjusting your throughput may not enhance the accuracy of your forecasts. - In another scenario, with a due date set for September 2026, if we increase our capacity by 20%, we can successfully complete our deadline. You have the opportunity to enhance your capacity, whether through hiring new team members or reallocating existing ones. This flexibility allows you to adapt and implement necessary changes as the project evolves. > ℹ️ **Tip:** Planning early makes the invisible risks visible, while you can still do something about them. > ℹ️ Most of all, remember that activating scenario planning means stepping away from reality. As you manually update key information for the simulations (workload, capacity, priority…, etc.), the forecast is only *one potential outcome* that *could* become reality if you make the necessary adjustments to match the scenario.