--- title: "We have a set deadline to meet" canonical: "https://support.55degrees.se/space/SP/3964864279/We%20have%20a%20set%20deadline%20to%20meet" format: markdown --- Deadlines create urgency, but they don’t magically create capacity. Portfolio Forecaster helps you test what needs to change (focus, WIP, scope, or capacity) to make delivery possible *before it’s too late*. The scenarios within the page are different scenarios that might be played out on the scenario planner to determine the best way to achieve the best outcome for the situation. - **Scenario 1: Can we meet the deadline as-is? **Given your current context and capabilities, are you able to meet the specified deadline? If not, what decisions or adjustments would be necessary to accomplish it? - **Scenario 2: Reducing WIP:** When your attention is directed toward fewer items, what other effects might this have on your overall work? - **Scenario 3: Increasing our capacity:** Can enhancing your capacity genuinely assist you in meeting deadlines? What effects could this have on your overall work performance? > Macro (toc) > ℹ️ In the scenarios below, we define capacity as the ability to finish work at the current rate (your throughput). Higher capacity means “finishing work at a higher rate than usual”, lower capacity means “finishing work at a slower rate than usual”. ## Scenario 1: Can we meet the deadline as-is? ### Results The forecast indicates that the four epics currently in progress are expected to be completed by September 6th, 2026. When factoring in the epics that have not yet started, it appears that the entire project can be finished by the deadline without altering priority, capacity, or workload. However, this forecast comes with an 85% confidence level, suggesting a 15% chance that completion may take longer than anticipated. *Is this risk acceptable?* The final epic, BROW-4818, is projected to be completed by September 9th, 2026, which leaves little room for unexpected delays such as vacations or illnesses. By increasing the confidence level from 85% to 95%, the forecast reflects completion dates with only a 5% chance of missing the deadline. However, it now appears that maintaining the current capacity and workload will not enable the team to meet this deadline. The forecast suggests that the deadline can still be achieved by adjusting the team's capacity by running a scenario with a 10% and 20% increase. Simply keeping the current capacity while reducing the workload does not seem to be a viable solution for meeting the deadline. Increasing capacity is essential. However, as demonstrated in [other scenarios](https://55degrees.atlassian.net/wiki/spaces/SPP/pages/3964864244/Forecasting+with+an+Increasing+Capacity#Scenario-1%3A-What-if-we-hire-additional-team-members%3F), adding new team members comes with trade-offs and is not always a guaranteed fix. > ⚠️ We are forecasting potential developments for the upcoming year, while recognizing that circumstances may change over time. Although the current strategy seems to address deadline concerns, it is important to understand that modifications can happen at any moment. Consequently, it is essential to consistently update our forecasts based on actual data rather than remaining in a hypothetical "what-if" scenario. Staying informed about the situation is vital for effective planning. ## Scenario 2: Reducing WIP ### Results Once TIS-123 is completed, work can progress as planned initially. If a priority needs to be set, the team can reorder the other epics, run forecasts, and see which forecast provides the best outcomes given the new context.   > ⚠️ Remember that those are simulations based on “what if” and not what is really happening. You need to keep forecasting based on your *real* data. Change your priorities, make the necessary changes, and your real data should reflect those changes 😉   ## Scenario 3: Increasing our capacity A capacity of 100 indicates full utilization, a capacity of 140 suggests that the anticipated throughput will exceed the usual levels by 40%   ### Results The forecast has improved, and some epics are forecasted to be completed months before the previously forecast date which matches with the deadline. However, this forecast does not consider the ramp-up time for new employees to learn the tools and processes, the possibility that they might not all start at the same time, or the possibility that some experienced team members might go on leave or vacation. This scenario enables us to identify potential impacts of adding team members and increasing the throughput. However, 4 new members do not necessarily mean a 40% increase; this is an estimate, and the reality could be very different!   > ℹ️ It is essential to keep in mind that the estimated 40% increase in throughput is merely an approximation and may not be entirely accurate. Relying on this figure could result in the team either overplanning or underplanning. > ℹ️ > ℹ️ Scenario planning is designed to help you visualize potential outcomes through "what if" scenarios, especially as summer approaches and team members begin to take vacations. Your actual capacity should be reflected in your *real* data. A forecast that does not account for any adjustments should accurately represent your current situation. --- ## How to export the forecast