---
title: "Forecasting with a Smaller Team"
canonical: "https://support.55degrees.se/space/SP/3964864192/Forecasting%20with%20a%20Smaller%20Team"
format: markdown
---
Sometimes you can’t do as much as usual. Maybe people are away on vacation. Maybe you’re asked to temporarily support another team. Or maybe you want to reduce delivery risk by intentionally limiting WIP.

Scenario Planning helps you model these changes, so you can adjust your delivery expectations *before problems happen*.


The scenarios within the page are different scenarios that might be played out on the scenario planner to determine the best way to achieve the best outcome for the situation.

- **Scenario 1: How can we forecast with a reduced team? **How do you consider that part of your team will be away/unavailable when planning your next quarter? How to not over- or under-promise? What might the impact be on your overall work?
- **Scenario 2: Sharing team members with a different project:** How do you consider that part of your team will be working on a different project for a while? What might the impact be on your overall work?

> ℹ️ In the scenarios below, we define capacity as the ability to finish work at the current rate (your throughput). Lower capacity means “finishing work at a lower rate than usual”


> Macro (toc)

## Scenario 1: How can we forecast with a reduced team?

A capacity of 100 indicates full utilization, while a capacity of 70 signifies that only 70% is being utilized. This estimation accounts for the anticipated absence of 30% of the team, resulting in a corresponding 30% reduction in throughput.

 

### Results

The anticipated lower capacity results in extended lead times, causing project completion dates to be delayed. If these forecasted dates do not align with expectations, milestones, or other deadlines, the team must consider reducing the work in progress (WIP) to concentrate the efforts of the remaining members on the most critical tasks.

> ℹ️ It is essential to keep in mind that the estimated 30% reduction in throughput is merely an approximation and may not be entirely accurate. Relying on this figure could result in the team either overplanning or underplanning.
> ℹ️ 
> ℹ️ Scenario planning is designed to help you visualize potential outcomes through "what if" scenarios, especially as summer approaches and team members begin to take vacations. Your actual capacity should be reflected in your *real* data. A forecast that does not account for any adjustments should accurately represent your current situation.


## Scenario 2: Sharing team members with a different project

A capacity of 100 indicates full utilization, while a capacity of 80 signifies that only 80% is being utilized. This estimation accounts for the anticipated unavailability of 20% of the team (Mark), resulting in a corresponding 20% reduction in throughput.

A capacity of 120 suggests that the anticipated throughput will exceed the usual levels by 20%.


### Results

The anticipated lower capacity results in extended lead times, causing project completion dates to be delayed (TIS project). In contrast, the higher capacity for BROW results in faster delivery of different work items. If these forecasted dates do not align with expectations, milestones, or other deadlines, the team must consider reducing the work in progress (WIP) to concentrate the efforts of the remaining members on the most critical tasks.

> ℹ️ It is essential to keep in mind that the estimated 20% reduction in throughput is merely an approximation and may not be entirely accurate. Relying on this figure could result in the team either overplanning or underplanning.
> ℹ️ 
> ℹ️ Scenario planning is designed to help you visualize potential outcomes through "what if" scenarios, especially as summer approaches and team members begin to take vacations. Your actual capacity should be reflected in your *real* data. A forecast that does not account for any adjustments should accurately represent your current situation.


## How to export the forecast